Climate Challenges: Africa

Climate challenges in Africa continue to intensify. They manifest differently in various parts of the continent — from abnormal droughts to flash floods. The cause is ongoing global warming and the El Niño weather phenomenon.

Many countries in the region are already facing food security issues and escalating internal climate migration. Under the current circumstances, food availability will decline, and migration from rural areas to cities will increase, further complicating the harvest situation. It is important to note that such challenges create risks of social tension and conditions for the infiltration of criminal groups, including terrorist organizations that may attempt to exploit the situation, including to recruit new members.

Below is a detailed analysis of climate anomalies.

Over the last 30 days in northern, central, southwestern, and eastern Ethiopia, northern Eritrea, South Sudan, eastern CAR, northeastern DRC, Uganda, and western Kenya, there has been a prolonged precipitation deficit. According to NOAA, the deficit can reach up to 80% from the norm — about 100–200 mm over the period.

In Uganda, western Kenya, and a significant part of Ethiopia, abnormal heat is forecasted — exceeding +35 °C. In July, the temperature in Uganda and Ethiopia usually ranges from 18–26 °C, so +35 °C — this is extreme heat, especially considering that most of East Africa is currently experiencing climatic winter.

These factors worsen the condition of pastures and complicate agricultural practices in general.

In West Africa, there is a heterogeneous situation depending on the country and region. On the coast, heavy rains and downpours are prevalent, leading to an increased risk of flooding in Nigeria, Guinea, and Liberia. In some regions, including southern Mali and eastern Nigeria, there is, conversely, a lack of precipitation — only 55% from the norm.

This is the climate shock: flooding on the coast and precipitation deficits inland.

This situation may complicate agricultural practices and force farmers to seek regions with more suitable rainfall levels. On the coast, the problem of flooding and inundation of settlements will intensify.

In the Sahel region, no temperature records have been broken, but consistently high temperatures have been established — around +35 °C. Precipitation is only 50% from the norm. This exacerbates the condition of already damaged soil. At such temperatures, precipitation evaporates quickly, preventing the soil from soaking up moisture, leading to its deficit. Crops die quickly under such conditions.

Extreme heat has settled along the Mediterranean coast. In Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia, temperatures hover around +40 °C. In the medium term, this creates an increased burden on irrigation systems and could lead to drying up water resources or lowering water levels.

In the southern part of Southern Africa, episodes of heavy rain are occurring — about 100 mm of precipitation can fall in a single day. This leads to localized flooding and rising river levels, which, when overflowing, can flood settlements. A similar situation was observed in April in South Africa, when some areas of Cape Town were flooded.

In Madagascar, on the other hand, drought continues, exacerbating the food crisis. Internal reserves are nearly exhausted.

We divide the consequences into short-term and medium-term.

The short-term consequences of climate anomalies in the region are directly linked to deteriorating food security, declining yield, and increasing internal migration.. In several countries, there is already a shortage of fresh water and food, which increases pressure on rural communities and prompts displacement to more stable areas.

Medium-term consequences include an increase in crime rates, rising social tensions, and potential local upheavals. The increase in migration to cities and densely populated areas raises the risk of resource conflicts, especially over water and food.

We separately note the increased activity of destructive elements — criminal and terrorist groups that seek to exploit the vulnerability of the population. In conditions of resource shortages, destruction of traditional livelihoods, and weakening of local institutions, such groups gain the opportunity to expand their influence and recruit new members, especially among the youth and displaced communities.

These processes will be examined in detail in a separate study.

Since April 20, heavy rains have continued in Kenya. In several districts, 20–50 mm of precipitation has fallen daily, which is 2–4 times above normal. As a result, dozens of districts have suffered from flooding, including the capital Nairobi. The rainfall is causing so-called flash floods: due to the large volume of water, a temporary uncontrolled flood occurs, making timely evacuation impossible.

As of April, more than a hundred people have died, around 68,000 have been forced to leave their homes, and the number of those affected by flooding is estimated at over 200,000. Dozens of bridges have been destroyed, power lines damaged, and residential areas and farmland flooded.

In the suburbs of Nairobi, key highways linking the capital with the southern and eastern parts of the country have been washed away, disrupting transport and food supplies. It is forecasted that heavy rains will continue into early May.

The cause of the flooding lies not only in the heavy rains but also in the fact that Kenya's infrastructure is in critical condition. In Nairobi and other cities, there is a lack of a developed drainage system, which means there is nowhere for the rainwater to go. As climate conditions worsen, the situation will only get worse, and the damage from such events will increase.

Somalia continues to experience a dual climate anomaly. The country is facing both local flooding and drought. In some areas of the northwest and coastal regions, intense rainfall continues, leading to inundation. At the end of April, over 4,000 people were displaced due to a single flooding event.

Conversely, in the central part, drought has set in: rainfall deficit reaches 40%. This will contribute to a worsening humanitarian situation and food security. In drought-affected areas, water shortages complicate agricultural practices. As a result, livestock deaths and food shortages can be expected, as well as an increase in dependence on humanitarian aid.

South Africa, like Kenya, is facing heavy rains. The monthly norm in some regions fell in just five days. Torrential rains are causing flooding in areas of Cape Town and other coastal cities. The high saturation of the soil is leading to landslides in mountainous and coastal areas.

In several provinces, road, bridge, and residential house damage has been reported, and thousands of people are temporarily leaving their homes due to flooding. However, there is no extreme heat in the country — the region is entering the winter season, and the main risk is associated with rainfall and landslides, not temperature.

In central and western Africa, a prolonged drought has been observed. The situation is particularly alarming in the Democratic Republic of Congo and Angola. The rainfall deficit can reach up to 50% of the monthly norm. This is causing the drying up of water resources, including small rivers and seasonal bodies of water. In certain areas, there is a noticeable decrease in the flow levels of major rivers and a reduction in the water volume in small lakes and ponds used for irrigation and watering.

Specific concerns are raised by forest and savanna fires, including outbreaks in arid regions and at the borders of forested areas. In some provinces of the DRC and Angola, the number of thermal anomalies (fire hotspots based on satellite data) in April exceeds the average of recent years. Fires are increasing the migration of wildlife, and the drying up of water resources is affecting fishing, which also poses a threat to food security and the income of local communities.

April in the Sahel saw no record temperatures: the average temperature was around +35 degrees. But even without extreme warming, the soil is already degraded, and chronic water shortages are increasing evaporation and reducing moisture available for agriculture. Combined with population growth and pressure on pastures, this increases the risk of further land degradation and resource conflicts.

Madagascar is in a similar situation, experiencing the worst drought in recent years. The rainfall deficit reaches 70%, with temperatures approximately 1 degree above normal. The consequences are severe: a significant part of the cassava and corn harvest has been lost, with serious losses also reported for other crops in certain areas. It is possible that in the coming months, the country will require humanitarian assistance, including food support and water supply programs.

April 2026 became a month of climatic contrasts. Eastern and Southern Africa faced torrential rains and flooding, while Madagascar and Central Africa demonstrated a consistent trend of prolonged droughts. The primary danger is food shortages and climate-induced migration, which will lead to overcrowding in cities and potential conflicts.

We update monitoring at the end of each month.

In Eastern Africa, the long rainy season begins, lasting from March to May. ICPAC forecasts show a 45% likelihood of above-normal precipitation. Torrential rains are expected in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, Kenya, Ethiopia, South Sudan, northern Somalia, and Djibouti.

Along with torrential rains, there is a risk of flooding and landslides since precipitation will fall on parched soil due to drought. In December 2025 and January 2026, Southern Africa experienced some of the most severe floods in its history. Over 10 days, the annual norm of rainfall fell. As a result of the flooding in South Africa, Mozambique, and Zimbabwe, over 300,000 people became internally displaced.

Overall, climatic conditions are intensifying internal migration, along with an increase in tension.

Alongside heavy rains in East Africa, extreme temperatures and drought are expected in the Sahel and North Africa. Dust storms may also intensify. According to the WMO, African countries are already losing between 2 to 5% of GDP due to climate change.