{"id":7563,"date":"2026-03-18T16:40:11","date_gmt":"2026-03-18T13:40:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/?p=7563"},"modified":"2026-03-27T13:03:40","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T10:03:40","slug":"escalation-of-the-iran-war","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/iran-war-escalation\/","title":{"rendered":"War with Iran: Three Weeks of Escalation"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-a893e4e\" data-block-id=\"a893e4e\"><style>.stk-a893e4e {margin-bottom:0px !important;}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">The war against Iran has been ongoing for almost three weeks now. Following massive airstrikes, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and many other high-ranking officials have been killed. On March 18, Iran also confirmed the death of Ali Larijani\u2014one of the ideologists behind Iran's nuclear program. However, the elimination of high-ranking officials has not made Iran vulnerable in either its domestic or foreign policy. Likely, a plan for the potential death of each high-ranking official was developed long before the war. We assume that, in the event of Larijani's death, his position will be taken by a close deputy or ally. This truly poses a problem for the U.S. and Israel. Evidently, the idea was to eliminate officials followed by destabilizing internal politics, which should lead to the final dismantling of the system.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-0650aa3\" data-block-id=\"0650aa3\"><style>.stk-0650aa3 {margin-bottom:18px !important;}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">However, we do not see any indirect or direct evidence within Iran of the people's or elites' readiness to change the regime or negotiate. On the contrary, the elites may have united in the face of the threat, and the population has not yet recovered from the suppression of the January protests.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-66605ad\" id=\"\u043b\u0438\u0432\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439-\u0444\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0442\" data-block-id=\"66605ad\"><style>.stk-66605ad {margin-bottom:18px !important;}.stk-66605ad .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Lebanese Front<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-4a2ffdf\" data-block-id=\"4a2ffdf\"><style>.stk-4a2ffdf {margin-bottom:0px !important;}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Israel continues airstrikes in Lebanon\u2014both along the northern borders and in Beirut and its suburbs. The main strikes are focused on the southern suburb. Hezbollah has openly engaged in conflict with Israel and, along with Iran, is launching attacks toward Israel. We believe these attacks are aimed at exhausting the Iron Dome air defense system. This is confirmed by the increased reports of missiles landing dangerously close to Israeli targets.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.newarab.com\/news\/israel-investigates-iron-dome-failure-after-hezbollah-strikes\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<br>The Israel Defense Forces are delaying the decision to start a ground operation in Lebanon to fight Hezbollah. Instead, they are attempting to compel the Lebanese government to disarm Hezbollah. However, this will be difficult for Lebanon to accomplish. Hezbollah is the most combat-ready fighting unit in Lebanon. We doubt that the Lebanese army will actually resort to disarmament. Particularly, reports from Arab media suggest that Hezbollah is passing through army checkpoints with weapons without any issue. Additionally, the complexity arises from the fact that the organization is Shiite, while 28\u201335% of Lebanon's population are Shiites. Thus, for them, Hezbollah may be seen as a protector and guarantor of their interests and security. Direct confrontation between the government and Hezbollah could lead to a new civil war.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-call-to-action stk-block-call-to-action stk-block stk-89403df stk-block-background stk--background-scheme--scheme-default-1 is-style-default stk--has-background-overlay\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"89403df\"><style>.stk-89403df {background-color:linear-gradient(120deg, #fdfbfb 0%, #ebedee 100%) !important;border-top-left-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-top-right-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-bottom-right-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-bottom-left-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;overflow:hidden !important;box-shadow:0 5px 30px -10px #123f524d !important;}.stk-89403df:before{background-image:linear-gradient(120deg, #fdfbfb 0%, #ebedee 100%) !important;}.stk-89403df > .stk-separator__top svg{fill:var(--theme-palette-color-5, #0528F2) !important;}.stk-89403df > .stk-separator__bottom svg{fill:var(--theme-palette-color-5, #0528F2) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-89403df {min-height:var(--stk--preset--block-height--none, 0px) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-block-call-to-action__content stk-content-align stk-89403df-column stk-container stk-89403df-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"has-text-align-center stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-89403df-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-d40586e\" id=\"\u0441\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0431\u043e-\u0447\u0442\u043e-\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0435-\u043d\u0430\u0441\" data-block-id=\"d40586e\"><style>.stk-d40586e {margin-bottom:15px !important;}.stk-d40586e .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-d40586e .stk-block-heading__text{line-height:1.35em !important;}}<\/style><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Thank you for reading us! <\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-0130273\" data-block-id=\"0130273\"><style>.stk-0130273 .stk-block-text__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-0130273 .stk-block-text__text{font-size:14px !important;line-height:1.35em !important;}}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text has-text-color\">You can support our project<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-button-group stk-block-button-group stk-block stk-9610686\" data-block-id=\"9610686\"><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk-button-group\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-button stk-block-button stk-block stk-29485cf\" data-block-id=\"29485cf\"><style>.stk-29485cf .stk-button .stk--inner-svg svg:last-child{height:30px !important;width:30px !important;}<\/style><a class=\"stk-link stk-button\" href=\"https:\/\/pay.cloudtips.ru\/p\/47fdd4e3\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 576 512\" aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><path d=\"M64 64C28.7 64 0 92.7 0 128V384c0 35.3 28.7 64 64 64H512c35.3 0 64-28.7 64-64V128c0-35.3-28.7-64-64-64H64zm48 160H272c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H112c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16s7.2-16 16-16zM96 336c0-8.8 7.2-16 16-16H464c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H112c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16zM376 160h80c13.3 0 24 10.7 24 24v48c0 13.3-10.7 24-24 24H376c-13.3 0-24-10.7-24-24V184c0-13.3 10.7-24 24-24z\"\/><\/svg><\/div><\/span><span class=\"stk-button__inner-text\">Support<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-spacer stk-block-spacer stk--no-padding stk-block stk-1ff5cc3\" data-block-id=\"1ff5cc3\"><style>.stk-1ff5cc3 {height:18px !important;}<\/style><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-83e5c07\" data-block-id=\"83e5c07\"><style>.stk-83e5c07 .stk-img-figcaption{text-align:center !important;}.stk-83e5c07 {overflow:hidden !important;margin-bottom:18px !important;}.stk-83e5c07 .stk-img-wrapper{aspect-ratio:4\/3 !important;height:auto !important;}.stk-83e5c07 .stk-img-wrapper img{border-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:999px){.stk-83e5c07 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-83e5c07 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-7564\" src=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_153530404.png\" width=\"1024\" height=\"691\" srcset=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_153530404.png 1024w, https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_153530404-300x202.png 300w, https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_153530404-768x518.png 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/span><figcaption class=\"stk-img-figcaption\">destroyed houses in residential areas of Beirut<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-4f594b8\" data-block-id=\"4f594b8\"><style>.stk-4f594b8 {margin-bottom:18px !important;}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Therefore, we believe that in order to achieve the goals of defeating Hezbollah, Israel will have to resort to a large-scale ground operation. Currently, Israel is only conducting limited ground raids in southern Lebanon, specifically in the Nabatieh Province\u2014this is the southern border of Lebanon. This province is considered strategic. However, without a full-scale ground operation, it will be impossible to take this area. Additionally, conducting such an operation carries enormous risks for Israel. The most significant risk is getting bogged down in battles with Hezbollah.<br><br>We assess the likelihood of initiating an operation at 60%, as we are confident that the Lebanese government will fail to disarm Hezbollah.<br><br>Regarding the humanitarian situation, it continues to deteriorate. Already over 500,000 people have become internally displaced persons, and this number could soon reach around 1 million. This will lead to a humanitarian catastrophe. The number of civilian casualties stands in the hundreds. We note that Israel, during strikes on densely populated areas, does not consider possible civilian casualties, although it sometimes calls for evacuation from areas it plans to strike in advance.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-549ce31\" id=\"\u0438\u0440\u0430\u043d\u0441\u043a\u0438\u0439-\u0444\u0440\u043e\u043d\u0442\" data-block-id=\"549ce31\"><style>.stk-549ce31 {margin-bottom:18px !important;}.stk-549ce31 .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Iranian Front<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-1de90c3\" data-block-id=\"1de90c3\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">The situation in Iran and around Iran is escalating. Together with the U.S., Israel continues to strike at Iran. The geography of the strikes is extensive and covers all major cities of the country. Primarily targeted are facilities associated with the IRGC and military assets, while we also record hits on non-military infrastructure. For example, there was a strike on the Azadi Stadium\u2014one of the country's largest stadiums. The strike was clearly targeted. Entire neighborhoods, including residential areas, are under bombardment. On March 7, Israel carried out large-scale strikes on oil infrastructure in Tehran, resulting in a thick cloud that obscured the sun in the city by morning. Israel also reports strikes on positions of Basij militia. Likely, the Israeli army uses drones for such attacks.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-image stk-block-image stk-block stk-d5da8f7\" data-block-id=\"d5da8f7\"><style>.stk-d5da8f7 .stk-img-figcaption{text-align:center !important;color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}.stk-d5da8f7 {margin-bottom:18px !important;}.stk-d5da8f7 .stk-img-wrapper{aspect-ratio:4\/3 !important;height:auto !important;}.stk-d5da8f7 .stk-img-wrapper img{border-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:999px){.stk-d5da8f7 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-d5da8f7 .stk-img-wrapper{height:auto !important;}}<\/style><figure><span class=\"stk-img-wrapper stk-image--shape-stretch\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"stk-img wp-image-7567\" src=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_154516675.png\" width=\"1536\" height=\"864\" srcset=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_154516675.png 1536w, https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_154516675-300x169.png 300w, https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_154516675-768x432.png 768w, https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/\u0438\u0437\u043e\u0431\u0440\u0430\u0436\u0435\u043d\u0438\u0435_2026-03-18_154516675-1024x576.png 1024w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1536px) 100vw, 1536px\" \/><\/span><figcaption class=\"has-text-color stk-img-figcaption\">burning warehouses in Tehran, AP Photo\/Altaf Qadri<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-3bb2dd4\" data-block-id=\"3bb2dd4\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">Verifying the sites of strikes and their consequences is challenging. Iran is experiencing almost complete internet shutdowns across the country, which complicates assessing the aftermath. Iran is actively denying that all of its missile installations and capabilities have been destroyed in response to these attacks. Iran mainly targets U.S. military assets in the region: military bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq. The IRGC separately launches volleys toward Israel; we have noted that lately, Iran has been increasingly using cluster munitions that can hit a larger number of targets and create difficulties for air defense. <a href=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/middle-east-war-economic-risks\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/middle-east-war-economic-risks\/\">here<\/a>.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/militarnyi.com\/en\/news\/irans-blockade-strait-of-hormuz\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<br>The goals of the U.S. and Israel's operation remain vague. After the assassination of Khamenei, the main goal, according to Trump, became the destruction of Iran's military capabilities and nuclear facilities. Indeed, the strikes have destroyed part of the military-industrial complex. However, Iran has the ability to quickly restore it, and we believe that the IRGC has large stockpiles of missiles and drones that it is conserving. Likely, the country began preparing for a potential conflict starting summer 2025, after strikes on its nuclear facilities.<br><br>However, to dismantle the regime and completely eliminate the military-industrial complex and achieve the initial goals, the U.S. and Israel may require a ground military operation. This may be limited to capturing strategically important facilities, including Qeshm Island\u2014an important island in the Persian Gulf. It is located at the exit to the Strait of Hormuz, and it has a concentration of IRGC military assets. But ground operations are fraught with the risk of dragging out military action and expanding the conflict. Air strikes will have limited effects.<br><a href=\"https:\/\/www.iranintl.com\/en\/202603072697\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><\/a>\u200b<br>The humanitarian situation is severe. According to the Iranian Ministry of Health and human rights defenders, the number of injured has exceeded 5,000, with the death toll surpassing 3,000 (including military and civilians). Civil infrastructure has been destroyed, which will exacerbate the economic crisis in the country and may cause shortages of goods. Continued strikes and expansion of the conflict will force many Iranians to leave their homes. Uncontrolled migration will lead to overcrowding in cities and increased social tensions.<br><br>The conflict continues and affects the entire region without exception. The continuation of the conflict is fraught with complications for the humanitarian situation. We will continue to monitor this conflict and will release updates as it develops.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-2863a52\" id=\"\u0432\u043c\u0435\u0441\u0442\u043e-\u0437\u0430\u043a\u043b\u044e\u0447\u0435\u043d\u0438\u044f\" data-block-id=\"2863a52\"><style>.stk-2863a52 {margin-bottom:18px !important;}.stk-2863a52 .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">In conclusion<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-6948358\" data-block-id=\"6948358\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">We are an independent project. Our goal is to investigate and analyze security issues.<br><br>We are not simply responding to changing conditions that affect our activities. We want to stay connected even under a complete internet blackout. Please subscribe to our newsletter below. <\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n\t<div class=\"ct-newsletter-subscribe-shortcode\">\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t<form target=\"_blank\" action=\"#\" method=\"post\"\n\t\t\tdata-provider=\"emailoctopus:0ef60612-0da6-11f1-b0df-4f1b7db65acf\"\n\t\t\tclass=\"ct-newsletter-subscribe-form\" data-trp-original-action=\"#\"\n\t\t\t>\n\n\t\t\t<div\n\t\t\t\tclass=\"ct-newsletter-subscribe-form-elements\" data-container=\"default\" data-columns=\"2\">\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t<input type=\"email\" name=\"EMAIL\" placeholder=\"Your email *\" aria-label=\"Email address\" required>\n\n\t\t\t\t<button class=\"wp-element-button\">\n\t\t\t\t\tSubscribe\t\t\t\t<\/button>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\n\t\t\t\n\t<p class=\"gdpr-confirm-policy\">\n\t\t<input name=\"ct_has_gdprconfirm\" type=\"hidden\" value=\"yes\">\n\t\t<input id=\"gdprconfirm_newsletter-4e1\" class=\"ct-checkbox\" name=\"gdprconfirm\" type=\"checkbox\" required=\"1\"><label for=\"gdprconfirm_newsletter-4e1\">I accept <a 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