{"id":7525,"date":"2026-03-06T18:38:58","date_gmt":"2026-03-06T15:38:58","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/?p=7525"},"modified":"2026-03-27T13:03:53","modified_gmt":"2026-03-27T10:03:53","slug":"middle-east-war-economic-risks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/middle-east-war-economic-risks\/","title":{"rendered":"War in the Middle East: Economic Risks"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-91dbe0b\" data-block-id=\"91dbe0b\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">The war in the Middle East has been ongoing for over a week. During the first seven days, we conducted direct monitoring of events \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/iranwar\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/iranwar\/\">here <\/a>you can see what happened. The escalation of the conflict continues, and more countries are becoming involved in the fighting. Our project attempted to assess the economic risks that the current situation poses for the Gulf states and for Iran's neighbors.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-467b630\" id=\"\u0446\u0435\u043d\u044b-\u043d\u0430-\u043d\u0435\u0444\u0442\u044c\" data-block-id=\"467b630\"><style>.stk-467b630 .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Oil prices<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-7758186\" data-block-id=\"7758186\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">With the onset of the conflict, regular oil supply routes have been disrupted. Middle Eastern countries account for about <strong>26% of global oil production<\/strong>. The majority of exports pass through <strong>the Strait of Hormuz<\/strong> \u2014 a strategically important artery through which about <strong>20% of the world's marine oil supplies<\/strong> and about <strong>30% of liquefied natural gas (LNG)<\/strong>.<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">pass. According to media reports, more than a thousand tankers may already be waiting in the Gulf of Oman for the chance to pass through the strait. This is increasing pressure on the market, and oil prices are rising. The price of Brent has already exceeded <strong>88 dollars per barrel<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-call-to-action stk-block-call-to-action stk-block stk-89403df stk-block-background stk--background-scheme--scheme-default-1 is-style-default stk--has-background-overlay\" data-v=\"2\" data-block-id=\"89403df\"><style>.stk-89403df {background-color:linear-gradient(120deg, #fdfbfb 0%, #ebedee 100%) !important;border-top-left-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-top-right-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-bottom-right-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;border-bottom-left-radius:var(--stk--preset--border-radius--large, 16px) !important;overflow:hidden !important;box-shadow:0 5px 30px -10px #123f524d !important;}.stk-89403df:before{background-image:linear-gradient(120deg, #fdfbfb 0%, #ebedee 100%) !important;}.stk-89403df > .stk-separator__top svg{fill:var(--theme-palette-color-5, #0528F2) !important;}.stk-89403df > .stk-separator__bottom svg{fill:var(--theme-palette-color-5, #0528F2) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-89403df {min-height:var(--stk--preset--block-height--none, 0px) !important;}}<\/style><div class=\"stk-block-call-to-action__content stk-content-align stk-89403df-column stk-container stk-89403df-container stk--no-background stk--no-padding\"><div class=\"has-text-align-center stk-block-content stk-inner-blocks stk-89403df-inner-blocks\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-d40586e\" id=\"\u0441\u043f\u0430\u0441\u0438\u0431\u043e-\u0447\u0442\u043e-\u0447\u0438\u0442\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0435-\u043d\u0430\u0441\" data-block-id=\"d40586e\"><style>.stk-d40586e {margin-bottom:15px !important;}.stk-d40586e .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-d40586e .stk-block-heading__text{line-height:1.35em !important;}}<\/style><h3 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Thank you for reading us! <\/h3><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-0130273\" data-block-id=\"0130273\"><style>.stk-0130273 .stk-block-text__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}@media screen and (max-width:689px){.stk-0130273 .stk-block-text__text{font-size:14px !important;line-height:1.35em !important;}}<\/style><p class=\"stk-block-text__text has-text-color\">You can support our project<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-button-group stk-block-button-group stk-block stk-9610686\" data-block-id=\"9610686\"><div class=\"stk-row stk-inner-blocks stk-block-content stk-button-group\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-button stk-block-button stk-block stk-29485cf\" data-block-id=\"29485cf\"><style>.stk-29485cf .stk-button .stk--inner-svg svg:last-child{height:30px !important;width:30px !important;}<\/style><a class=\"stk-link stk-button\" href=\"https:\/\/pay.cloudtips.ru\/p\/47fdd4e3\"><span class=\"stk--svg-wrapper\"><div class=\"stk--inner-svg\"><svg xmlns=\"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2000\/svg\" viewbox=\"0 0 576 512\" aria-hidden=\"true\" width=\"32\" height=\"32\"><path d=\"M64 64C28.7 64 0 92.7 0 128V384c0 35.3 28.7 64 64 64H512c35.3 0 64-28.7 64-64V128c0-35.3-28.7-64-64-64H64zm48 160H272c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H112c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16s7.2-16 16-16zM96 336c0-8.8 7.2-16 16-16H464c8.8 0 16 7.2 16 16s-7.2 16-16 16H112c-8.8 0-16-7.2-16-16zM376 160h80c13.3 0 24 10.7 24 24v48c0 13.3-10.7 24-24 24H376c-13.3 0-24-10.7-24-24V184c0-13.3 10.7-24 24-24z\"\/><\/svg><\/div><\/span><span class=\"stk-button__inner-text\">Support<\/span><\/a><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Exporting countries are forced to stockpile reserves within the country. This could lead to overflowing tanks, reduced production, and further price increases. Qatar has already stated that it will take several weeks to several months to return to normal LNG supply volumes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">If the situation drags on, the price of oil could exceed <strong>100 dollars per barrel<\/strong>. This would trigger a chain reaction: an increase in fuel prices, rising transportation costs, and then \u2014 food, medicine, and other goods. Even countries with persistently low inflation will face accelerated inflation. Central banks will be forced to raise interest rates, leading to a slowdown in economic activity and a decrease in investments. Ultimately, the global economy may slow down, and developing countries are at risk of entering a recession.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-b5d8bb4\" id=\"\u0440\u0438\u0441\u043a\u0438-\u0434\u043b\u044f-\u043b\u043e\u0433\u0438\u0441\u0442\u0438\u043a\u0438-\u043c\u043e\u0440\u0435-\u0441\u0443\u0448\u0430-\u0432\u043e\u0437\u0434\u0443\u0445\" data-block-id=\"b5d8bb4\"><style>.stk-b5d8bb4 .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Risks to logistics: sea, land, air<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Not only maritime supplies are disrupted. Land and air corridors are also at risk. Airlines <strong>Emirates<\/strong> and <strong>Etihad<\/strong> report that they expect to restore air service soon, but risks remain high. Iran is striking at U.S. and allied facilities, and such attacks could pose a threat to civil aviation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There are currently no signs that Iran intends to reduce or cease its strikes. This creates uncertainty for the entire air traffic system in the region.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-f4641e1\" id=\"\u0447\u0442\u043e-\u0431\u0443\u0434\u0435\u0442-\u0434\u0430\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435\" data-block-id=\"f4641e1\"><style>.stk-f4641e1 .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">What will happen next<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-text stk-block-text stk-block stk-0c24ef0\" data-block-id=\"0c24ef0\"><p class=\"stk-block-text__text\">The further development of the situation depends on several factors:<\/p><\/div>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>how long the military operation will last;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether further escalation will occur;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>whether the U.S. and its allies will opt for a ground operation;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>how seriously oil and gas infrastructure and logistics routes will be damaged.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Each of these factors has the potential to radically change the economic consequences of the conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-stackable-heading stk-block-heading stk-block-heading--v2 stk-block stk-52db15d\" id=\"\u043f\u043e\u0434\u043f\u0438\u0448\u0438\u0442\u0435\u0441\u044c-\u043d\u0430-\u043d\u0430\u0448\u0443-\u043f\u043e\u0447\u0442\u043e\u0432\u0443\u044e-\u0440\u0430\u0441\u0441\u044b\u043b\u043a\u0443\" data-block-id=\"52db15d\"><style>.stk-52db15d .stk-block-heading__text{color:var(--theme-palette-color-4, #171010) !important;}<\/style><h2 class=\"stk-block-heading__text has-text-color\">Subscribe to our newsletter<\/h2><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enter your email below and subscribe to important updates about our project<\/p>\n\n\n\n\t<div class=\"ct-newsletter-subscribe-shortcode\">\n\t\t\n\t\t\n\t\t<form target=\"_blank\" action=\"#\" 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type=\"hidden\" name=\"trp-form-language\" value=\"en\"\/><\/form>\n\n\t<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0412\u043e\u0439\u043d\u0430 \u043d\u0430 \u0411\u043b\u0438\u0436\u043d\u0435\u043c \u0412\u043e\u0441\u0442\u043e\u043a\u0435 \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0434\u043e\u043b\u0436\u0430\u0435\u0442\u0441\u044f \u0443\u0436\u0435 \u0431\u043e\u043b\u044c\u0448\u0435 \u043d\u0435\u0434\u0435\u043b\u0438. \u041f\u0435\u0440\u0432\u044b\u0435 \u0441\u0435\u043c\u044c \u0434\u043d\u0435\u0439 \u043c\u044b \u0432\u0435\u043b\u0438 \u043f\u0440\u044f\u043c\u043e\u0439 \u043c\u043e\u043d\u0438\u0442\u043e\u0440\u0438\u043d\u0433 \u0441\u043e\u0431\u044b\u0442\u0438\u0439 \u2014 \u0437\u0434\u0435\u0441\u044c \u043c\u043e\u0436\u043d\u043e \u043f\u043e\u0441\u043c\u043e\u0442\u0440\u0435\u0442\u044c, \u0447\u0442\u043e \u043f\u0440\u043e\u0438\u0441\u0445\u043e\u0434\u0438\u043b\u043e. \u042d\u0441\u043a\u0430\u043b\u0430\u0446\u0438\u044f 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":7538,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_gspb_post_css":"","ai_generated_summary":"","dsgo_overlay_header":false,"dsgo_overlay_header_text_color":"","dsgo_overlay_skip_top_bar":false,"_designsetgo_exclude_llms":false,"wds_primary_category":0,"wpai_meta_description":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[154,117,155],"tags":[166],"class_list":["post-7525","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-154","category-research","category-155","tag-166"],"blocksy_meta":{"styles_descriptor":{"styles":{"desktop":"","tablet":"","mobile":""},"google_fonts":[],"version":7}},"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7525","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=7525"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7525\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/7538"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=7525"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=7525"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/subtext-lab.com\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=7525"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}